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Over/Under

Since saturday I started to bet only over/under, choosing the odds on average to be higher than 2.

Bet only on top 5 leagues, Portugal and Eredivisie.

 

The results impressed me, 68% (34 out of 50 bets) and i will continue the track.

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Discussion — 9 comments

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9 comments
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23••(edited)•1 reply

For today i selected the following bets

1. Man. City vs Crystal Palace → Total under 3.5, @ 2.10

2. Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao → Total over 2.5, @ 2.25

3. Villarreal vs Sevilla → Total over 2.5, @ 1.84

4. Getafe vs Mallorca → Total over 2.5, @ 2.77

5. Alavés vs Barcelona → Total over 3.5, @ 2.54

 

Another one

6. Lens vs PSG→ Total over 4.5, @ 3.70

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Today, the hit rate is 50%, with a small increase of bankroll, by 1.4%.

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6,484••1 reply

Solid run so far. The logic of sticking with over/under in big leagues is sound, since stats are tighter and freak outcomes less common. Still, variance will catch up eventually.

In poker, you can go on heaters but table discipline always wins long term. If you haven't set a weekly stop loss, I'd lock that in now before variance tests your nerve. Are you tracking average odds over time or just number of wins? That detail changes the real story.

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Also the average of odds. The lowest daily average was 2.03. The worst day was on monday, 40% hit, but the higher odds on winning bets (2.49) allowed to end the day at break-even, the loosing 60% had an average of 2.19.

 

On Saturday i had 79% of winning bets, 15 out 19. I bet on every game played in the selected leagues, that's why i consider this a good result. It left only few games this season, but it can be a good start for the next one, if the the average winning will remain ~62-65%

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1,099••1 reply

Bankroll discipline makes a huge difference with these runs, reminds me of chasing the zero game in roulette and waiting for the right spin. Have you set a weekly stop loss or are you just riding the streak?

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My bankroll management is simple, the bankroll at the beginning of the day/50. Since i risk only 2% on each bet, i expect that the downswings to look flatish and not as a sharp fall.

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23••2 replies

For today i take:

1. Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano → Total over 2.5 @ 2.23

2. Girona vs Real Sociedad → Total over 3.5 @ 2.77

3. Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo → Total under 2.5 @ 2.80

 

The analysis on Real game confirms my own thoughts on this match. Real has no motivation, Oviedo, also without motivation and they have no force to score against Real.

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23••1 reply

Only one hit yesterday, Real - Oviedo, but the 2.8 odd, almost covered the loss. I lost only 2%.

 

For today Liverpool win is the most underpriced. The real probability is ~62%, while the odds indicates that the bookmakers estimate it at 39%.

 

The safest bet is over 2.5 for 1.73.

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Today i take this:

1. Liverpool to win (away) @ 2.47

2. Total +2.5 (Over 2.5) @ 1.73

3. Total +3.5 (Over 3.5) @ 2.75

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