edge_finder

Today i take this: 1. Liverpool to win (away) @ 2.47 2. Total +2.5 (Over 2.5) @ 1.73 3. Total +3.5 (Over 3.5) @ 2.75

Only one hit yesterday, Real - Oviedo, but the 2.8 odd, almost covered the loss. I lost only 2%. For today Liverpool win is the most underpriced. The real probability is ~62%, while the odds indicates that the bookmakers estimate it at 39%. The safest bet is over 2.5 for 1.73.

I think that there are patterns, because the humans/dealers have the same behavior, they can't change it on longer run. I also observed that providers change the speed of the wheel to mitigate that effect. I tested on 1573 spins on azure roulette, in 3 sessions each by ~500 spins and a strategy that worked quite good was abs(diff between last 2 winning numbers) - 1, as the target number, plus 3 neighbours. Bet until hit one of the number. But the game became boring. My betting strategy was increase by 0.5 unit/number after each loss , the starting bet being bankroll/500. I started with 500 units of my currency, and ended with 23810. But you should be prepared on average 8 to 13 losing in a row, the longest was 27, when the ball lands only on one side of the wheel. I suppose each of us observed this.

For today i take: 1. Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano → Total over 2.5 @ 2.23 2. Girona vs Real Sociedad → Total over 3.5 @ 2.77 3. Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo → Total under 2.5 @ 2.80 The analysis on Real game confirms my own thoughts on this match. Real has no motivation, Oviedo, also without motivation and they have no force to score against Real.

Today, the hit rate is 50%, with a small increase of bankroll, by 1.4%.

My bankroll management is simple, the bankroll at the beginning of the day/50. Since i risk only 2% on each bet, i expect that the downswings to look flatish and not as a sharp fall.

Also the average of odds. The lowest daily average was 2.03. The worst day was on monday, 40% hit, but the higher odds on winning bets (2.49) allowed to end the day at break-even, the loosing 60% had an average of 2.19. On Saturday i had 79% of winning bets, 15 out 19. I bet on every game played in the selected leagues, that's why i consider this a good result. It left only few games this season, but it can be a good start for the next one, if the the average winning will remain ~62-65%

For today i selected the following bets 1. Man. City vs Crystal Palace → Total under 3.5, @ 2.10 2. Espanyol vs Athletic Bilbao → Total over 2.5, @ 2.25 3. Villarreal vs Sevilla → Total over 2.5, @ 1.84 4. Getafe vs Mallorca → Total over 2.5, @ 2.77 5. Alavés vs Barcelona → Total over 3.5, @ 2.54 Another one 6. Lens vs PSG→ Total over 4.5, @ 3.70

It mainly shows distribution of money/liquidity in a way to secure house edge. It is not real probability, although algorithms or experts set the odds.