Sports betting model building: does anyone actually do this or just guess.

i keep hearing about folks using models for sports bets but honestly, how many of us really build out a spreadsheet or run python before tossing money down? for all the talk of “edges” and “value,” seems like half my circle just goes off vibes or riding a hot streak. i’ve got the basics like closing line value and tracking my action, but i’ve never coded up anything fancier than sorting my bets by sport or keeping a tally of which sportsbook promos i’ve cleared.

sometimes i’ll play around with nba stats or football weather reports just out of habit, but i can’t shake the feeling most winning bettors are more disciplined with numbers than me. maybe i’m just old school, trusting my gut and grinding poker tables instead. anyone here actually use a legit model for their picks, or is it all just talk? do models really outperform the “feel guys,” or is it just a way to look smart on twitter?