Sports betting model building: does anyone actually do this or just guess.
digging deep into a model feels less common than folks admit, but where i actually see disciplined number-crunching is bonus and promo hunting. every sharp i’ve met who’s cleared a big sportsbook rollover or milked free bet promos had some spreadsheet magic, not just for picks, but for tracking each promo, expected value, and when to hedge. nobody’s getting rich on “feel” alone if they’re grinding those offers. betting stats may be vibes sometimes, but optimization in bonuses is pure stats homework, not gut.