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player traded mid season bet?

Took a futures bet on a player for most goals this season, and he just got traded to a team with a completely different play style. Wondering if anyone’s run into this or looked into how these trades play out for prop bets. The book says bets stand if the player gets traded, but the line I got was based on his old team’s system, which is way more offense-heavy than his new one.

Trying to figure out how much I should hedge or if this is just sunk now. I get the risk part, but it feels like a pretty wild variable that stats can’t account for easily. Curious if anyone else factors in mid-season trade risk when taking these kinds of props.

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Discussion — 8 comments

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8 comments
U
261•

Maybe, but i wouldn’t overthink the “system” part soooo much. The killer for these futures is usually usage after the trade, not style on a whiteboard, and books know that when public money piles onto shiny scorers early. Once he’s off first unit, that ticket feels pretty cooked to me.

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509••5 replies

"wild variable" is funny lol that's futures in one phrase. Same vibe as slots players crying when the cold run stays cold

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S
860••3 replies

No, that’s where people get cute and miss it... This isn’t slots variance, it’s usage getting chopped in plain sight. I’ve had these go dead the second a guy lands on PP2, even if the new team scores more overall. “System” matters less than who feeds him and where he starts shifts. Did he keep top line and first unit in his first game after the trade, or was it already the quiet demotion? 😏

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D
777•

First game lies, man. I torched a ticket once treating game-one PP2 like a funeral, then by game 3 he was back up top. Learned to wait a beat unless the minutes crater hard. Roulette-brain got me there.

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P
2,294•

First game after a trade can fake you out though, coaches shelter guys for a night then bump em up by game 3, seen that more than once. Same bad read people make in Crypto Casinos too, chasing the first spin like it proved something, I’d want 3 games of PP usage before calling it dead

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1,156•

Slots comp is off. Cold run is variance, trade is role. If he got bumped off pp1 in game one that ticket got repriced by reality, not luck...

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U
930•

yeah bets stands, value prob doesnt. guy goes from 19 mins top pp1 to 15 and pp2 after a trade and ur most goals ticket gets real mid fast

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