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Most unpredictable sports odds?

For me it's MMA and it's not close. Any sport where one hit can wipe out the better side is already bad enough, then you add judging and weird late money and the odds get messy fast.

I can look at football or basketball lines and at least see what they're hanging it off. With MMA I see a guy open -180, drift to -140, then close back up for no clear reason except people chasing narratives...

Prop market is even worse there. Method of victory, rounds, decision no bet, all of it swings around off tiny bits of info and half of it is rumor level info dressed up like sharp action.

Tennis is up there too, but MMA is still the one where I trust the number the least. The line can look right on paper and still be nowhere near what the fight turns into once it starts

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790•

Weigh-ins get me with this sport. I watched a favorite look badly drained at the scale, then fade late, and the pre-fight number never seemed to account for it. That’s rough shit to price in, I guess. I’m also not sure you can separate real movement from the explanation people come up with afterward.

Could’ve been something useful, could’ve just been everyone reacting to the same story. I can’t tell.

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573••3 replies

No, MMA lines move on real info. I'd argue MLB is the worst, one bad pitch...

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121•

No, MMA lines move on real info.

i still trust mma odds less. a move can be on real info, but once the fight turns your read is gone. had a +150 dog finished inside 90 seconds, pre-fight junk meant nothing

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2,875•

a bad pitch is one pitch, the rain delay is what wrecks it

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148•

Bet MMA for years then quit.

Judges retire undefeated, books don't.

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