Turn barrel bad?

so i'm running into spots where i cbet flop and then bet turn when checked to, especially in heads-up pots. problem is, my turn barrel gets called way more than i think it should, and sometimes even raised. feels like the player pool's starting to call down a lot lighter, or maybe i'm not picking the right spots to double barrel.

i've got a background in stats so i'm trying to track these spots, but variance is kinda messing with my head - i can't tell if i'm getting unlucky or if my line just isn't profitable anymore. not sure if this is a spot where i should be tightening up and checking back more, or if the meta has just shifted and people aren't folding their mid pairs or draws like before. anyone else seeing the same thing, or is my sample size just trash? interested in how others are adjusting, if at all.