lehabelkakill

Short answer: yeah, most likely. If you’re just going off gut feeling, you’re not accounting for the price properly. Sometimes you’ll win, but over time the house edge + bad pricing decisions usually catch up.

Good question — it’s not just rough, you can convert it exactly. For positive odds:Probability ≈ 100 / (odds + 100)So +200 → 100 / (200 + 100) = 100 / 300 ≈ 33% For negative odds:Probability ≈ odds / (odds + 100)So -150 → 150 / (150 + 100) ≈ 60% That’s the “implied probability” before the bookmaker’s cut.

You’re actually pretty close already, you just need a clean mental model for it. At its core, sports betting is just probability + pricing . 1. What the odds mean (the + and - thing): Negative odds (e.g. -150) = favorite→ You have to risk $150 to win $100 Positive odds (e.g. +200) = underdog→ You risk $100 to win $200 So yeah, you were right: minus = more likely, plus = less likely. You can also think of odds as the bookmaker’s estimate of probability (with a margin built in so they profit no matter what). 2. How you actually win money: You don’t just need to be right — you need to be more right than the odds suggest . Example:If a team is +200 (implied ~33% chance), but you believe they actually have a 50% chance, that’s a good bet . That’s how people make money long-term. 3. Parlays (why they feel like a trap): You nailed it — they’re high risk. You combine multiple bets ALL of them must win Bigger payout, but much lower probability Bookmakers love parlays because they’re harder to win than they look. 4. Live betting: Same concept, just faster. Odds keep updating based on what’s happening in the game. People who are good at it usually: understand the sport really well react faster than the odds adjust For most people, yeah… it’s closer to guessing with a time limit. 5. The important reality check: Most people don’t make money long-term. Why? The odds include a built-in house edge People bet emotionally (favorites, big teams, chasing losses, etc.) Parlays and live bets increase variance Simple way to think about it: You’re not betting “who wins” - you’re betting whether the odds are wrong . If you remember that, the whole thing starts making way more sense.

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